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Tag: backtesting

  • Why Backtesting is an Essential Risk Management Tool for Traders

    Why Backtesting is an Essential Risk Management Tool for Traders


    When people start trading, they usually focus on the exciting stuff—finding the right entry point, reading charts, chasing big moves. But often, they skip over one thing that could make a major difference in the long run: backtesting.

    At Zebu, we work with thousands of traders across India. We’ve seen one thing repeatedly—traders who spend time understanding how their strategy worked in the past tend to make more stable, less emotional decisions. They may not win every time, but they usually know what they’re doing—and why.

    Let’s talk about backtesting in simple terms. What it is, why it matters, and how you can use it to reduce uncertainty in your trades.

    What Is Backtesting?

    Backtesting means checking how your trading strategy would have performed if you had used it during previous market conditions. That’s it.

    It’s not about predicting the future. It’s about learning from the past. You take the same rules—your setup, your stop loss, your profit target—and apply them to historical price data. Then you review the results.

    If you’re using Zebu’s MYNT online trading app, you already have access to charts and tools that can help you do this. You don’t need to code or use complex software. You can literally scroll through old charts and mark where your strategy would have triggered a trade.

    Why Should Traders Care?

    Here’s the honest truth: most traders lose not because they pick the wrong stock, but because they don’t have a clear plan. Or they change their plan too often.

    Backtesting forces you to stick to one idea and see how it performs. It helps you answer a few basic but important questions:

    • Does this strategy work more often than it fails?
    • How much do I gain on average? How much do I lose when it doesn’t work?
    • Are there days or times when it works better?
    • What happens during news events or sideways markets?

    Instead of guessing, you now have a simple record of how the strategy behaves. That’s real clarity.

    A Common Mistake Traders Make

    Many traders hear about a strategy online and try it the next day. For example, let’s say someone uses a breakout setup for intraday options. They buy as soon as the price moves above the high of the first 15-minute candle.

    Sometimes it works. Sometimes it fails badly. Without backtesting it across 30–40 days of data, they have no idea when it’s likely to succeed—or when it’s just noise.

    This is where backtesting saves you. Maybe you’ll learn that the strategy works best on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, or only when the overall index is trending. That kind of learning doesn’t come from watching five trades. It comes from reviewing many.

    Real-Life Simplicity: You Don’t Need to Be a Pro

    Backtesting doesn’t have to be technical. If you’re using Zebu’s platform, here’s how you can keep it simple:

    1. Pick one strategy you use or want to try.
    2. Open past charts using the TradingView feature in MYNT.
    3. Scroll through one month of data.
    4. Mark where the setup would have happened.
    5. Note how the trade would have ended: profit or loss.
    6. Track patterns: Does it do better on trending days? What about high-volume stocks?

    Just do this for one hour per week. That’s it. You’ll start seeing patterns that are specific to how you trade—not someone else on social media.

    How It Helps You Manage Risk

    Now let’s connect this to risk management.

    When you backtest a strategy, you can estimate:

    • Your win rate: How many trades succeed vs fail.
    • Risk/reward: How much you usually make when right vs what you lose when wrong.
    • Maximum drawdown: What’s the worst stretch the strategy goes through?

    Armed with this info, you’ll know:

    • How much to risk on each trade
    • Whether to stop trading a strategy after a certain number of losses
    • How to adjust during different market phases

    It’s not about perfection. It’s about having a clear frame of reference before you place your next order.

    How Zebu Traders Use Backtesting in Real Life

    We’ve seen clients who trade Nifty options using a simple 2-indicator system—one for entry and one for exit. When they first came to Zebu, they’d enter trades based on a “gut feeling.”

    After a few losses, we encouraged them to test their strategy using past 60-minute candles over the previous month. They started noticing that their entry worked better after 10:30 a.m., not before. They also learned to skip expiry days.

    Small tweaks like these, discovered through backtesting, made their overall trading smoother. They didn’t need a new strategy. They just needed more clarity about how their existing one actually behaved.

    It’s About Confidence, Not Control

    No one can control the market. But you can control your process.

    When you’ve tested a strategy, you’re not relying on luck. You’re trading with information you’ve already seen play out dozens of times. That confidence makes a big difference—especially during volatile weeks or choppy sessions.

    Zebu supports this approach through its platform tools, regional guidance teams, and relationship managers who can walk you through data if needed. We believe in clarity, simplicity, and confidence through process.

    Final Thoughts

    Backtesting isn’t fancy. It doesn’t guarantee results. But it gives you something that every trader needs: a better understanding of how your strategy behaves—before you risk money on it.

    If you’re using an online stock broker, trading through a stock market platform, or trying setups on your e trade platform, take some time to look back before you jump in.

    That small habit might be the edge you’ve been missing.

    Disclaimer:
    This blog is intended purely for educational and informational purposes. It does not provide investment advice, recommendations, or trading guidance. Readers are encouraged to evaluate their risk profile and consult a certified financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions. All trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future outcomes.

    FAQs

    1. Why is backtesting important in trading?

      Backtesting helps traders see how a strategy would have performed in the past, giving confidence before risking real money.

    2. What is backtesting in risk management?

      It’s a process of testing your trading rules on historical data to identify potential risks and refine strategies for safer execution.

    3. Do professional traders backtest?

      Yes, most professional traders backtest trading strategies to validate ideas and reduce risk before applying them live.

    4. How many times should I backtest my strategy?

      Backtest multiple times across different market conditions to ensure the strategy works reliably and isn’t overfitted.

    5. Is backtesting difficult?

      Not really. With the right tools, backtesting in trading is straightforward, though it requires patience and accurate data for meaningful results.

  • What Should You Consider While Backtesting A Strategy – Part 2

    Sharpe Ratio: The risk-adjusted returns, or reward-to-risk ratio, is found by dividing the annualised return by the annualised volatility.
    With the Kindino Ratio, negative returns are taken into account by dividing the annualised return by the annualised volatility of negative returns.

    In the last section, we talked about how volatility was a way to measure risk. We have these two measurements because we know that not all risks are bad. Sharpe looks at all kinds of volatility, while Sortino only looks at downside volatility. Here is where they part ways. Most of the time, you want a high Sharpe and a high Sortino.

    The right way to count costs

    When analysing trading techniques, it’s also important to think about how much it costs to make the trades that need to be made. One of the main reasons for this is that beginners often think their techniques are better than they really are.

    Many quants think that the only costs of a trading strategy are the commissions that have to be paid to brokers. Two more important examples are:

    Commissions

    As you may already know, it’s hard to trade without a broker. In exchange for money, brokers provide transaction services and act as an exchange. Brokers sometimes add on extra costs and fees that you might not expect. This includes any extra services, fees set by the exchange, and taxes the government might charge for the financial transaction.

    Slippage

    Slippage is a key feature that is often overlooked when evaluating. Slippage is when the price you wanted to trade at is different from the price you actually trade at.

    Why do these prices vary from each other? There could be many things going on. For example, you might have wanted to buy 100 shares of Apple at $100 each, but only 50 people were willing to sell at that price and another 50 at $101. Your loss would have been 50 cents, and the price you would have traded at is 100.50.

    Slippage, which is part of transaction costs, can quickly turn a strategy that should be profitable in theory into one that doesn’t work. In the previous example, if you had planned to sell your shares for 102 dollars, slippage would have cut your profit by 25%. Slippage can be reduced by making a good plan for execution, but it’s important to know how it might affect your deals.

    A few words about the biases we all have

    Everything comes from within, including both profit and loss. Even though the market and how volatile it is play a big role in how much money we make or lose, we always let an inner voice guide us when we make a trade. Some of these voices can be helpful, but most of the time they come from people’s biases. We often feel a wide range of emotions and have to make decisions we weren’t supposed to make because of these kinds of personal biases. We need to control our emotions and personal preferences if we want to know when to stop a trade and when to keep going with it.

    We can’t make good decisions when we’re feeling a lot of different emotions, so these are important things to look at when judging a trading strategy. Some emotions that can make it hard to think straight are excitement, thrill, hope, fear, worry, and panic. These are the emotions that drive us, so keeping an eye on them when it makes sense will always help us do better in a trade.

    If you want more information on this, we also have a page about biases in backtesting and risk management. This will tell you more about your own biases and how to avoid them so you can trade better.

    Most of the time, these are some of the things that are used to judge a trading strategy. Don’t be afraid to write things down as you try to use them in your plan. Once you’ve looked at the results, you can start making changes to improve the way your transactions work.

  • What Should You Consider While Backtesting A Strategy – Part 1

    Backtesting is a very useful way to figure out how our trading algorithms might work in real life (might is the key word). But it can be hard for a data scientist who doesn’t have a background in finance to understand what it all means. Sharpies or Sortinos? Returns or profitability with money? This shouldn’t stop you, though, because some of the best funds in the world are run by people who aren’t in finance. Instead, it’s time to learn.

    In this article, we’ll talk about some of the most important ways to tell if your trading strategy is working or not. If you really understand these basic indicators, you’ll have a good basis for judging different strategies.

    Setting Up Performance Measures

    These are some of the first criteria or measures you could use to figure out how well your trades are going. Most of the time, the measurements focus on two important parts of a strategy: the change in the value of the portfolio and the risk of making those gains or losses. By understanding these two things, you can figure out what it does well and where it falls short.

    Financial metrics

    All of the metrics in this section tell you how much money you made (or lost) when you used a certain strategy. The final amount of money is a good place to start, but there are other signs that give us more information:

    Annualized Return: The average annual percent profit from your trading strategy (or loss).

    Win/Loss, Average Win/Loss: Total (or Average) (or Average) Profits from Trades That Work The total (or average) amount of money lost on trades that go wrong.

    % Profitability is the number of profitable trades out of all of them.

    When we talk about return on capital as a percentage, we usually mean that the strategy is a multiplier on your initial capital. This is helpful most of the time, but we should remember that it’s only partly true.

    Next, if we want to fully understand a strategy, we need to know how we are making money. For instance, do we consistently make tiny wins or do we consistently make small wins followed by massive losses? By looking at different combinations of profitability, win/loss, and profit/loss, we might start to understand how our plan will work.

    Metrics that focus on risk

    It’s just as important to see big profits as it is to know that the method could lose money in the long run. “No risk, no reward” is a saying that only winners use. The vast majority of people whose risky bets didn’t pay off don’t say it. Here, the following crucial metrics are important:

    Annualized Volatility: The standard deviation of the model’s daily return over a year. Since volatility is used to quantify risk, a model with a higher vol indicates greater risk.

    Highest Drawdown: The most negative change in the value of the whole portfolio or the biggest drop in PnL. It is based on the biggest difference between the high and the next low before a new high is set.

    Since our backtest will always cover the whole period, drawdown is an important risk factor to think about, but we’re much less likely to keep a losing trade open in real life. If you had bought Amazon stock in 1998, it would have been smart to keep every share and buy as much as you could during the dotcom bust. In reality, not many people would keep going with a deal if their money dropped by 10%, 20%, 40%, 80%, etc.


  • How To Backtest Your Strategy Manually

    How To Backtest Your Strategy Manually
    There are numerous applications and trading platforms available now that allow you to backtest your strategy. However, you may not always have these tools available, or you may want to see the complexities of your strategy in action. The good thing is that you can independently backtest your strategy. All you need is your trading strategy and historical data to accomplish this.

    Even if you do it manually, backtesting a plan is not difficult. However, employing a programme or a platform makes things much easier.

    What exactly is backtesting?

    Backtesting is the foundation of developing trading techniques and edges. During a backtest, a new approach is tested against historical data to determine its effectiveness. This has a lot of advantages, such as being able to watch the plan in action and evaluating whether or not any of the parameters need to be changed in order for it to function.

    If a trader’s backtesting provides positive outcomes, he or she may have faith in the approach. If a backtest does not produce acceptable results, adjustments will most likely be required. You might also find out that the strategy you devised isn’t worth pursuing.

    While backtesting is a terrific idea, it must be done with extreme caution. As we’ll see later, it’s entirely feasible that a method that performed admirably in the backtest may fail miserably on real-time data. There are, however, solutions to this difficulty.

    How to Backtest Your Strategy Manually

    Backtesting is typically performed by those who are familiar with coding. Those who are unable to code must rely on a backtesting platform.

    If you decide to manually test your approach, you can simply choose any chart that provides access to the indicators required for your plan. TradingView and MT4/MT5 now offer the finest free options. Let’s look at how to manually backtest your plan now.

    Or, you can use your trading platform’s in-build charts as well. For example, Zebu comes with an impeccable trading platform that you can use to manually backtest your strategy. You can view charts in multiple time frames and use a host of indicators and screeners to backtest your strategy.

    1. Develop the Strategy

    Before you can backtest a strategy, you need to develop one in the first place. It is critical that you do not test half-heartedly since this would be a waste of your time.

    Create a trading plan based on your understanding of the market. When you’re done, take a good, long look at it and try to examine each individual parameter. If something does not appear to be correct, make the necessary changes before proceeding to backtest. Your entry/exit signals, conditions, timeframe, and risk per trade are all important considerations.

    After you’ve finished developing your plan, you may begin backtesting it.

    2. Choose your charts

    Choose the market in which you want to backtest your data. Once you’ve found the market, open the chart you’re using and choose a timeframe from the past.

    Traders typically backtest their method for at least a few years. While some traders believe that scrolling back to the beginning of the chart is necessary, this is not the case. You should be alright as long as you can backtest your technique over a prolonged period of time. A sample size of around ten years gives enough history to build a reasonable sample size.

    Then, using the tools on your chart, pull up all of the indicators you’ll need for your trades. Ascertain that your chart is properly configured with all of the trading tools that will be required during the backtest. You are now ready to begin your backtest.

    When you choose a share broker for backtesting and trading, ensure that you choose the best online trading platform like Zebu. Our charts, along with the wide range of indicators we have can help you formulate the most complex as well as easy trading strategies and backtest them manually. In addition to this, we also support your trading with the lowest brokerage for intraday trading.

    3. Perform Manual Backtesting on Your Strategy

    You might have already figured out what to do next! Backtest your method by moving the chart ahead bar by bar. This entails recording trades anytime your trading method suggests it.

    Recording your trades is actually pretty simple, and it can be done using either a physical journal or software like Microsoft Excel.

    It is not difficult to keep track of your trades, but it can be time-consuming. When a trade signal is generated, all you need to do is record the entry point, stop-loss, date and time, and any other information that may be relevant to the trade. Many traders like to mention other nuggets that their trading method is informing them, such as the risk to reward ratio, and so on.

    When you’re ready to exit the trade, make a note of your return as well as the exit point. After that, you simply repeat the procedure. Backtesting, as you may have guessed, can be tedious and time-consuming. Remember that backtesting a decade of data will most likely take at least a few hours. As a result, when you sit down to backtest a technique, make sure you have the time.

    The Drawbacks of Manual Backtesting

    The issue with manual backtesting is that you can make mistakes when tracking the data. In addition, when backtesting your technique, there is a psychological component involved. Because you can see the data ahead of you, you may not wind up executing the trades that your method suggests.

    People usually try to excuse this by saying, “I wouldn’t have made that trade in real life.”

    Simply do not do this! If a trade fulfills your criteria, make a note of it!

    If you are able to authentically and honestly note down your trades while backtesting manually, then you do not have to sprint for expensive programs and data plans to backtest. Your journal or excel sheet would suffice.

    As we have mentioned before, when you choose to start with manual backtesting, you need an online trading platform that accommodates every complexity of your trading system. As a leading share broker, we at Zeu have created an online trading platform that comes with a host of indicators to help you formulate and backtest a strategy. In addition to this, we also support your trading efforts by giving the lowest brokerage for intraday trading.